Global Forward Planning

 The 2028 U.S. Presidential election is a chance to shift the current trajectory of American global engagement in the near and long-term.  It will determine whether the United States undergoes a gradual retreat from global leadership—resulting in a messy but manageable multipolar world—or a rapid retreat, which could create power vacuums that other nations and non‑state actors quickly exploit. There is the possibility that both paths could be moved back towards the leadership role the U.S. has played in the past, but not without a conscious and dedicated effort to rebuild our reputation and role.

Setting aside for now the possibility of a reversal, the difference between these two paths will have significant implications for global stability, U.S. national security, and the international systems that support American economic and political resilience. Questions we should all be asking as this election progresses involve future security and stability.

• What does gradual retreat look like, who fills the gaps, how messy it might be, and are the efforts that have served us well since our founding survivable?
• If the trajectory of rapid retreat continues, what will be the shocks, geopolitical dynamics, emerging vacuums, and leading actors in the global arena?
• How will power brokers differ and our relationship to new power dynamics change? For instance;

1. What will be China’s role in both slow and sudden transitions.
2. Are regional hegemons more likely to evolve in a gradual or rapid retreat and how they behave when the U.S. steps back.
3. Should we be paying more attention to the reactions from our traditional allies? Are we missing signals now that will haunt us later?

Regardless of the election outcome, the next administration will confront a world already shifting toward multipolarity, regional blocs, and competitive, transactional behavior.  The choices made in the last 24 months have hastened the transition toward instability initiated, in part, by the effects of globalization. Those choices, and those to come may limit our options in the future. The 2028 election will not determine whether the United States remains the world’s sole superpower because that capacity and role is already fading. It will determine how the transition unfolds: a slow and strategic focus of a more isolated U.S., a sudden and much more risky withdrawal from international leadership, or a gradual rebuilding of our position and reputation. The choices made in the election and soon after are likely to have a significant role in shaping global stability for decades.

Scenarios on Into the Unknown tab.